OSD 325: “Big thanks to Pope Leo XIV for coming on the pod”
On the structural force of communication technology.
The first time a sitting US president went on a late night talk show was in 2009. But they’ve engaged with new media since new media was a thing. They started going on the radio and on TV essentially as soon as those became popular mediums.
Even the papacy is not above this. The first televised papal address was on Easter Sunday 1949, when less than 5% of US households had a TV. John Paul II allowed the Today Show to film inside the Vatican in 1985, and it’s now normal for popes to do frequent Q&As.
The trend goes like this:
New technology comes about.
Large incumbents use it to spread their message in a controlled manner.
Over time, the technology becomes less and less controllable and starts more and more to set its own terms of engagement.
This asymptotes towards incumbents having a choice: engage with the tech on its own terms, or become irrelevant. (“Or just ban the tech once it becomes vexatious” is most incumbents’ preferred option, but that’s not always possible.)
Presidents used to take over all three television networks when they wanted to give a speech, and nobody had the choice to watch anything else. Now presidents shitpost alongside the rest of us.
What does this have to do with civilian defense? The people and institutions who are hostile to it are subject to all these same media trends. If the Catholic Church, which has a strong claim for being the longest lasting human institution in history, isn’t exempt from these iron laws of technology, why would Everytown have a chance?
Prediction: the pope will go on a longform podcast before a federal gun ban ever passes. The trends make the former ever more likely and the latter ever less likely. We often say that technology is upstream of culture. And we keep seeing that play out in real life, on bigger and bigger scales.
This week’s links
Invention Incarnate’s smoke grenades
DIY smoke grenades that outperform both anything you can buy and a lot of things you can’t buy. H/t @Hoffnung on our Discord.
The ATF is buying new Huxwurx suppressors
The bureau’s statement said they need new cans for “health and safety”. Accidentally cool of them to say that suppressors are important health and safety devices. H/t @Desolator on our Discord.
Magazine-fed full auto crossbow
We literally only want one thing, and it’s disgusting.
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> The trend goes like this:
> 1. New technology comes about.
> 2. Large incumbents use it to spread their message in a controlled manner.
> 3. Over time, the technology becomes less and less controllable and starts more and more to set its own terms of engagement.
> 4. This asymptotes towards incumbents having a choice: engage with the tech on its own terms, or become irrelevant. (“Or just ban the tech once it becomes vexatious” is most incumbents’ preferred option, but that’s not always possible.)
This also describes the Papacy's attitude towards the printing press back in the day.
That you for making me look up "asymptotes"!
One more for my lexicon.