> First: very, very few of the most important stories in any given year will matter (or even be remembered) in the long run. So if you spend your days reacting to them, you are wasting your life reacting to things that do not matter.
This quote was originally about technological change, but I think it applies just as validly to politics: "people tend to overestimate change in the short term and underestimate change in the long run".
This is why my prior on just about any random political issue is "it probably won't change (*implied*: in the short term)". Jumping and being the first to comment usually just means commenting first on something that doesn't matter.
> First: very, very few of the most important stories in any given year will matter (or even be remembered) in the long run. So if you spend your days reacting to them, you are wasting your life reacting to things that do not matter.
This quote was originally about technological change, but I think it applies just as validly to politics: "people tend to overestimate change in the short term and underestimate change in the long run".
This is why my prior on just about any random political issue is "it probably won't change (*implied*: in the short term)". Jumping and being the first to comment usually just means commenting first on something that doesn't matter.
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