OSD 333: In all the silencer talk, everyone forgot about SBRs and AOWs
We’ve spent so much time these past few weeks talking about the impending explosion in silencer sales (tldr we’re headed for a future where every gun has a silencer on it) that we, along with everyone else it seems, have forgotten about some other big news. The price of tax stamps for short-barreled rifles and shotguns and “any other weapons” is also going to $0.
Stephen Gutowski at The Reload detailed the roller-coaster procedural history of the new law:
Let’s start with what happened and what the goals were. House Ways and Means Republicans started the ball rolling on using reconciliation to cut the NFA transfer tax on silencers. Sources there claim they did it of their own volition and got little behind-the-scenes pushback to their plan before passing their text.
However, once that text passed out of the committee, there was immediate and united pushback from the gun-rights groups, who wanted not just a tax cut but a full delisting of not just silencers but short-barrel firearms, too. Some of those groups, such as the National Association of Gun Rights and Gun Owners of America, went so far as to frame the effort as a betrayal of gun owners. They carried out an aggressive public pressure campaign demanding the text be altered even before it left the House.
That worked initially. The House passed a rule that added silencer delisting to the text. Then the Senate followed suit by adding short-barreled firearms and “any other weapons” on top of that.
A subscriber on our Discord captured the whiplash well:
I think it is just crazy how quickly we went from repealing the NFA being a lofty end game goal for the far future, something people thought of as a distraction for closer incremental gains, to us not getting a nearly full repeal being the biggest betrayal by Republicans since “read my lips, no new taxes”. The people watching has been interesting. I think now that we have the target in our sights we can credibly push for a partial NFA repeal for the next budget bill and get it.
A couple weeks ago I was happy that even suppressors had a very partial tax removal (transfer not making). Now we are getting making and transfers and SBR/SBS. Having been at this for about 25 years now the progress is great to see.
So SBRs and AOWs were a late addition to the party. The most we’ve discussed them is when we touched on them two weeks ago:
… the NFA has prevented entire categories of guns from being invented. Specifically:
Next-gen PDWs. Think the B&T USW or TP9 but with a 50x bigger market, a few more generations of improvement, and every company in the industry trying to make a better one. In a world without barrel length laws, look for micro PDWs to become the standard home defense gun.
AOWs. Pen guns and cane guns are novelties because it has been effectively illegal for them to evolve into something useful.
Integral suppressors. As [Mitch Barrie of Mesa Tactical] said, if these come off the NFA too, everyone will want to put them on a short barrel gun in order to keep overall length at a reasonable level.
Let’s talk more about that. AOWs are an interesting test case, because before this new law lowered the transfer tax on them to $0, it wasn’t $200. It was $5. So money wasn’t a meaningful adoption hurdle. The Form 4 paperwork is a hurdle, and AOWs have always been weird misfits. Pen guns, cane guns, that sort of thing. Those kinds of novelties aren’t enough to get people over the hump of doing a Form 4.
SBRs are enough to get people over the hump. The ubiquity of pistol braces is proof that people want carbines with <16” barrels. The NFA is arguably the only reason that the standard carbine barrel length isn’t already <16”. With the $200 tax stamp now free, the Form 4 is the only hurdle. And companies like Silencer Central and Silencer Shop have mostly abstracted that away. So you can expect shoulder-fired guns to get much smaller pretty quickly. This will have some second-order effects:
Pistol calibers will make a comeback. Fans of 10mm can rejoice. That cartridge isn’t much fun in a handgun, but it’s perfect for a PDW. Another winner is intermediate cartridges like .300 BLK, optimized for ~8” barrels. Everybody wants an 8” barrel, but nobody wants to shoot 5.56 out of one.
The 16” AR is going to become less popular. It’s an awkward middle ground. It’ll have a place for people who don’t want to be registered under the NFA, but it will no longer be the go-to rifle everyone buys.
As Form 4s get more and more abstracted away, AOWs will become more of a thing. Once there are 10-20 million SBRs out in the wild, that’s enough critical mass for KelTec or someone to make a crazy new pen gun.
Companies can set themselves apart with innovation in ergonomics and recoil mitigation. The smaller the gun, the more important both of those become.
There’s a dangerous corollary to all this. If we’re headed towards most guns having silencers on them and SBRs being the new standard rifle, that means we’ll end up with most guns being registered with the federal government.
That’s a risk, but if that becomes the top problem, it means we’ve built up cultural momentum that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. The $0 tax stamp is controversial among people who wanted to hold out for full repeal, but those people are underestimating the cultural momentum that $0 tax stamps will drive. Think about a society where there are 50x as many silencers and SBRs in circulation. That’s a different planet than what we’re used to. It’s where we’re headed. And it can create the kind of momentum that could be used to take these things out of the NFA altogether.
This week’s links
Volvo armored cars
You can buy an XC90 with IIIA direct from Volvo.
The sheriff of Nevada County, California, will give you a non-resident California carry permit
Yes, you.
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It’ll be nice to have a stock on my TAC-14 and 300 blk 7.5 but I think the thing I’m most interested in is a 10 to 12 inch barrel 22 LR rifle like the Henry Mare’s leg with a stock.
And ONCE AGAIN, the most popular AOW is ignored! Factory Pistol Grip Only shotguns. Think Shockwave or Tac-14 but with a more usable grip.
Almost bought an Ithaca 37 in that configuration years ago,still regret I didn't.